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Application of MaxEnt modeling to evaluate the climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Lippia javanica (Burm.f.) Spreng in Africa

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Abstract

Lippia javanica is a typical indigenous plant species mostly found in the higher elevation or mountainous regions in southern, central, and eastern Africa. The ongoing utilization of the species for ethnobotanical applications and traditional uses, coupled with the changing climate, increases the risk of a potential reduction in its geographic distribution range in the region. Herein, we utilized the MaxEnt species distribution modelling to build the L. javanica distribution models in tropical and subtropical African regions for current and future climates. The MaxEnt models were calibrated and fitted using 286 occurrence records and six environmental variables. Temperatures, including temperature seasonality [Bio 4] and the maximum temperature of the warmest month [Bio 5], were observed to be the most significant determinants of L. javanica’s distribution. The current projected range for L. javanica was estimated to be 2,118,457 km2. Future model predictions indicated that L. javanica may increase its geographic distribution in western areas of the continent and regions around the equator; however, much of the geographic range in southern Africa may shift southwards, causing the species to lose portions of the northern limits of the habitat range. These current findings can help increase the conservation of L. javanica and other species and combat localized species loss induced by climate change and human pressure. We also emphasize the importance of more investigations and enhanced surveillance of traditionally used plant species in regions that are acutely susceptible to climate change.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. All authors have read, understood, and have complied as applicable with the statement on “Ethical responsibilities of Authors” as found in the Instructions for Authors.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Elijah Mbandi Mkala for his assistance in statistical analyses. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions.

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  1. Boniface K. Ngarega and Paul Chaibva contributed equally to this work

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China

    Boniface K. Ngarega, Valerie F. Masocha, Josphat K. Saina, Phyo K. Khine & Harald Schneider

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Boniface K. Ngarega

  3. Sino-Africa Joint Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Boniface K. Ngarega

  4. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Midlands State University, Bag 9055, Gweru, Zimbabwe

    Paul Chaibva

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  1. Boniface K. Ngarega
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Contributions

Boniface K. Ngarega conceived and designed the experiments, analyzed, and interpreted the results, and authored and reviewed drafts of the manuscript. Paul Chaibva performed statistical analysis, analyzed and interpreted the results, and authored the manuscript. Valerie F. Masocha performed statistical analysis, and analyzed and interpreted the results. Josphat K. Saina analyzed and interpreted the results and reviewed the drafts of the manuscript. Phyo K. Khine analyzed and interpreted the results and reviewed the drafts of the manuscript. Harald Schneider reviewed the drafts of the manuscript. All authors have read and approved the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Valerie F. Masocha.

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Supplementary file1 (PDF 8829 KB) Describes the response curves of 6 environmental variables in L. javanica habitat distribution model.

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Ngarega, B.K., Chaibva, P., Masocha, V.F. et al. Application of MaxEnt modeling to evaluate the climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Lippia javanica (Burm.f.) Spreng in Africa. Environ Monit Assess 196, 62 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-12232-3

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